Tag: mortgage-rates

Posted in Buyers, Sellers

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates in Juneau County

Posted on by Liz Walker

Mortgage rates have been on a bit of a roller coaster again. They briefly dipped below 6% for the first time in almost two years, then bounced right back up after trouble in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. When gas and energy costs spike, the broader economy expects higher inflation down the road, and mortgage rates tend to react quickly. The good news: even with this recent bump, today’s rates are still lower than the highs we saw in 2023, so this looks more like normal ups and downs than a big, permanent shift.

Here’s what’s going on behind the scenes, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or refinancing here in Juneau County.

What really drives mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are tied closely to something called the 10‑year Treasury yield. That’s basically the interest rate the government pays to borrow money for ten years, and lenders use it as a starting point when they set mortgage rates. When the economy is fairly strong — people are working, spending, and businesses are investing — there’s more demand for borrowing. More demand for long‑term loans usually pushes that 10‑year rate higher, and mortgage rates follow.

Think of it like this: when more people and businesses are trying to borrow at the same time, the “price” of money (interest) tends to go up.

Why inflation and energy prices matter

Another big piece of the puzzle is what investors expect inflation to do next. After the recent conflict involving Iran, oil and gas prices jumped. As soon as that happened, markets started building in the idea that inflation might run hotter in the coming months. Mortgage rates moved almost immediately, long before any official inflation reports came out, because lenders are always trying to stay a step ahead.

So when you see higher prices at the pump here in Juneau County, that’s not just an irritation — it often ties directly into what happens with mortgage rates.

The Fed’s role (and limits)

The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly, but it sets short‑term interest rates and sends signals about how strict or relaxed it plans to be. Inflation has cooled off from its earlier extremes, but it’s still higher than the Fed would like. Because of that, they’ve been cautious about cutting rates. As long as the Fed is in “wait and see” mode, it’s hard for long‑term mortgage rates to drop a lot.

So if you’re hoping for rates to suddenly fall back into the 3–4% range, the Fed’s current tone suggests we’re not there yet.

Other everyday factors that nudge rates

There are also some smaller, everyday things that influence mortgage rates:

  • When most households keep their debts manageable and pay on time, lenders feel more secure and don’t have to charge as much in interest.
  • When people feel good about their jobs and finances, more of them step into the market to buy homes, which can keep rates from drifting much lower.

Here in Juneau County, that might show up as steady interest in starter homes, lake properties, and move‑up homes, even if rates aren’t at rock bottom.

What recent job numbers are telling us

The latest national jobs report sent a mixed message. The headline numbers showed slower job growth and a higher unemployment rate, which might sound like the economy is cooling off. Normally, that could help take pressure off interest rates. But when you look closer, wages are still rising faster than inflation, and many workers — including those in more vulnerable positions — are still hanging on to their jobs. Consumer spending has stayed solid as well.

Put simply, the job market is easing off the gas, not slamming on the brakes. That makes the Federal Reserve less likely to rush into big rate cuts, which in turn makes a big drop in mortgage rates less likely in the short term.

What this means for buyers in Juneau County

Even with rates hovering a bit above 6%, we’re still in a better place than we were at the worst of 2023. For many buyers around Juneau County — whether you’re looking in Mauston, New Lisbon, Camp Douglas, or around Castle Rock Lake — that can mean:

  • More predictable payments than we saw when rates were spiking.
  • Lenders a bit more willing to work with well‑qualified buyers as some guidelines have loosened compared to the tightest days.
  • A market where serious buyers still have opportunities, but aren’t always facing the extreme competition we saw a few years ago.

If you’re thinking about buying or refinancing, the three big things to watch are:

  • The 10‑year Treasury yield (what long‑term money is costing overall)
  • Inflation trends and energy prices (especially gas and utility costs)
  • The Federal Reserve’s language about future rate cuts or hikes

Overall, while mortgage rates may feel a little jumpy right now, we’re still in a better spot than we were at the peak in 2023, and buyers in Juneau County still have solid opportunities. The key is to focus less on the daily headlines and more on what works for your budget, your timeline, and your long‑term plans. If you’re thinking about a move this year — whether it’s your first place, a move‑up home, or a lake property — I’m here to walk you through the numbers, current options, and what makes the most sense for you in today’s market.

Posted in Buyers, Sellers

Is the Real Estate Market finally Crashing?

Posted on by Liz Walker

The 2025 Housing Market: Cooling, Yet Surprisingly Resilient

The real estate market is always evolving, and 2025 is proving no different. After the frenzy of the pandemic years, conditions have cooled—yet the fundamentals remain strong. Home values still rose 3.7% on average, while existing home sales and prices ticked up 0.8% and 0.2% year-over-year, respectively. Mortgage rates remain higher than during 2020–2022, making affordability tougher, but the market’s core remains healthy. Here’s a data-driven look at key trends shaping today’s housing landscape.

1. Home Sales Are Normalizing

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), July 2025 existing-home sales nationally hit 4.01 million, with 4.6 months of inventory and with a median price of $258,370 in Juneau County, WI.

  • A balanced market is around 6 months of inventory, so we’re still in a mild seller’s market with an average days on market of 60days, but not the red-hot one of recent years.
  • Homes are taking a bit longer to sell than during the 2020–2022 whirlwind, reflecting stability rather than weakness.

2. Pending Home Sales Are Slowing

The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for June 2025 registered 72.0, with modest month-over-month drops across all regions.

  • Fewer pending deals may feel negative, but it gives buyers more breathing room to evaluate options and negotiate, reducing rushed decisions.

3. Prices Still Expected to Rise

Multiple forecasts (Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR) predict 1–2% annual home-price growth in 2025 and 2026.

  • While far from pandemic-era spikes, these steady gains signal that waiting for a major price drop may backfire.
  • Buyers who delay could face higher purchase prices, larger down payments, and increased property taxes.

4. More Seller Listings Offer Buyers Choices

Realtor.com reports 434,816 newly listed homes in July 2025, a 7.3% year-over-year increase.

  • More inventory helps buyers find the right fit and negotiate more confidently.
  • For sellers, it’s a call to accurately price your property to stand out competively.

5. Listing Prices Are Holding

Median list prices nationally have hovered between $390K and $440K over the past year and are up 0.5% YoY.

  • Nationally, prices are stable, proving the market is cooling without collapsing.

6. Real Estate Remains the Top Long-Term Investment

A Gallup survey shows 37% of Americans rank real estate as the best long-term investment, beating gold, stocks, and crypto.

  • Homeownership continues to be a proven path to building wealth, despite short-term fluctuations.

7. Sales Forecasts Show Sustainable Growth

Zillow projects 4.09 million home sales in 2025, just a 0.6% increase from 2024.

  • Slower growth = more sustainability, a healthier sign than the explosive (and unsustainable) pandemic gains.

8. Construction Has Finally Recovered

U.S. construction employment recently surpassed pre-2008 levels, adding 250,000 jobs in a few years.

  • Increased building could help ease supply constraints and moderate price growth over time.

9. Mortgage Rates May Ease

Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to average around 6.0% in 2025, down from roughly 6.4% in 2024.

  • Even a small rate drop can reduce monthly payments, improving affordability for buyers on the fence.

10. Inflation Is Still the Top Money Worry

Gallup surveys show inflation/high cost of living remains Americans’ primary financial concern, though slightly less than last year.

  • Using a real estate agent can help buyers navigate affordability with insights on lower-cost areas and financial-assistance programs.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

  • Buyers: Stable prices and rising inventory mean more choice and negotiating power. Acting before mortgage rates dip could secure today’s prices and avoid future competition.
  • Sellers: While the market is less frenzied, demand is steady. Correct pricing and strong marketing are essential to stand out.
  • Agents: Knowledge of these trends builds trust and positions you as a strategic advisor in any market cycle.

Bottom line: The 2025 housing market isn’t crashing—it’s finding its balance. With modest price growth, steady demand, and improving inventory, real estate remains a solid long-term investment and a cornerstone of financial security.

Posted in Buyers, Homeowners, Sellers

Spring 2025 Real Estate Market Conditions

Posted on by Liz Walker

As the peak period for residential home sales approaches, prospective buyers may encounter a broader selection of properties and increased search flexibility. This development should make it easier to buy for those who have previously struggled to locate a residence that aligns with their specific requirements.

The balance of negotiation leverage between buyers and sellers may be relatively even at present. This time last year, the market favored sellers. Currently, as the spring season commences, the market is more equal between buyers and sellers depending on the property.

It is essential to recognize that local market conditions can vary significantly, depending on what type of property you are buying. Vacation home sales are still going strong, while the local residential housing market is still a challenge for first time home buyers because there are limited properties available in the $150,000 – $250,000 price point. Here is a summary of general market trends and guidance for the upcoming months.

When does the primary period for residential real estate transactions begin?

The majority of sellers in WI typically list their properties during the spring season, starting with the spring rise in temperatures and reaching its peak in late May and early June. This timing aligns with the influx of purchasers, many of whom aim to finalize their relocation during the summer months when schools are in recess. The convergence of increased seller activity and purchaser interest characterizes spring as the most active period.

Will competitive pressures diminish in 2025?

The real estate sector is subject to seasonal fluctuations, with spring typically marking a period of heightened activity. However, fluctuations in mortgage interest rates, which have exhibited volatility over the past two years, also influence market dynamics. Decreases in interest rates tend to stimulate buyer activity, while rate increases tend to lower demand.

The average days on market for a single family home was near 3 months in the first quarter of 2025. This is double the previous year days on market of 1.5 months. It is noteworthy that competitively priced properties still tend to sell fast. I believe there has been a trend among sellers to list their property higher than the market comparisons would dictate. Sellers are still under the impression that home prices are rising quickly as happened during the Covid years but this is no longer true. The real estate market has returned to normal.

Our nation’s political climate and economy is certainly playing a large part in the movement of real estate. Buyers and sellers have been overly cautious since before the presidential election last year which has made market activity stagnant. The market isn’t crashing but it’s not quickly rising either.

Will a greater selection of affordable properties be available?

The availability of affordable properties is contingent upon individual budget constraints and local market conditions. The number of homes sold in 2024 hit a 30 year low. However, generally, experts are anticipating an increase to inventory during this spring over last year but it will be a small increase..

Will interest rate drop this year?

Consumers shouldn’t wait for interest rates to drop. The expectation is that rates will remain in the mid 6% range throughout most of the year. Economists don’t expect mortgage rates to drop below 6% this year at all. The low rates from the last five years are a thing of the past so don’t wait to make a move based on a low mortgage rate. More concerning will be the rising costs of building materials as the need for new home construction due destruction from flooding, hurricanes and wildfires. New home prices and the costs to remodel are going to continue to rise so don’t wait for the perfect time to make a move.